Why Florida Can't Win The National Championship in 2008

The math isn't simple - but the implications are: the Florida Gators are not going to the National Championship game this season.
Let's start with basic BCS math. The three components: Harris and Coaches polls and the computer rankings each count for one-third. Sounds easy and fair (if you like the BCS). The problem is the hidden, extra, weight given the computers.
For those math majors in here, i am going to make it easier by removing the decimal (or multiplying by 1000), if you don't know what that means, don't worry it has no effect on the math.
Once the polls come out, each team gets a decimal point ranking based on how many points they received out of the total possible. If Texas receives 1494 points out of a possible 1525, then they get a 9800 (1494/1525) ranking from the voter poll. Both voter polls are done this way. If Texas gets the 1494 and Oklahoma gets 1490, then Texas gets 0.9800 points and the Sooners get (1490/1525) 9770 a difference of 30 points. A very small amount for teams judged to be close. This is very fair.
The computers, though, are a little different. There are six computers and they throw out the high and low score, leaving four computer rankings that count for each team. the problem is there is no maximum in a computer ranking, like there is in a voter poll. So in order to get a decimal ranking, they order each of the polls up to 25. Then first place gets 25 points, second 24 points, etc... down to 25th place getting 1 point. Then the BCS adds up these points and multiplies by 1000. Fairly mathmatically stright forward, but in the details you can ee the extra weight afforded every position in the polls regardless of how close they are according to the computer's algorithm.
In the Texas and Oklahoma scenario above, Texas is ahead of OU, but by a very small amount, so they get a very small amount of a boost (30 points). but if Texas is ahead of OU by one spot in any computer ranking, regardless of how close it is, they get a huge boost (200 points).
This is Florida's delimna. They have to jump Utah, Tech, Texas, etc... in the computer rankings in order to make it to the national championship game. the points they gain from the voter polls will not be near enough to claim one of the top two spots in the rankings - even if they destroy Alabama.
All Bama has to do is lose by about 16 points or less (this is a personal opinion) and they should fly right into the NC game.
Maybe this is the BCS buster we have been waiting for... The Perfect BCS Storm - two teams, both with one loss, one just beat the other, and yet the losing team makes it to the national championship game instead of the winning team.
We can only dream...

BCS Mumblings

It's funny, you get to this point and it should be obvious or at least almost obvious. The scenarios are usually numerous, but cut and dry. Not so this year. We have given the people double the input into the BCS rankings as the computers and this year, it may make a huge difference. This year - we could have four teams separated by less than .0100 points. That is Mack Brown putting the Longhorns first and the leaving the Sooners off his ballot. Bob Stoops picked a bad year to give up his coaches poll vote.

Let's look at the most intriguing scenarios:

My favorite is the All SEC, All The Time, BCS National Championship Game. Right now, Alabama has a HUGE lead on the Sooners, the Longhorns, and the Gators in the BCS standings. If Florida wins next week, they could jump Oklahoma and Texas while Alabama doesn't drop that far. This could leave us with the National Championship as a rematch of the SEC championship game. If you think this is far fetched, just look back at 2004, where #1 Oklahoma lost by 28 points in the Big 12 championship game... and stayed at number one. I give this a 35% chance of happening. If the Big 12 south team loses the Big 12 championship game, the probability skyrockets to 75%.

My next favorite is the We Know Better Than To Believe What Happened On The Field BCS National Championship Game. This also has the Gators beating Alabama next week, but not moving up enough to make it to the top 2 in the BCS standings. That would leave the Florida team that beat Alabama in the SEC championship out of National Championship game while the team they beat gets play for the title. This is probably at about 10%.

There is always the Less Is More BCS National Championship Game. In this scenario, Oklahoma State beats the Sooners, leaving the Big 12 championship game to Texas Tech. Texas, with a huge BCS rating, just maintains and ends up one of the top two teams. Probability: 15%.

How do the outsiders get in? Can USC, Penn State, Utah, or Texas Tech make the national championship game? The short answer is... no. Alabama has too high a ranking for them to be passed with just one loss. The problem is, any of those four lower ranked teams would need all three of the teams ahead of them to lose and that isn't possible. Florida can lose to Alabama next week, but if Oklahoma loses to OSU, then Texas is done until the bowls. If Oklahoma wins, then either they jump Texas and play for the Big 12 championship (and the Longhorns are done until January again) or they stay behind the Longhorns and they are done until bowl season.
So if you are a fan of the second four in the BCS - just hope you get into a BCS bowl and Joe Pa should enjoy his trip to the Rose Bowl.

If no one in a BCS conference is in the top 15, that conference should lose it's automatic bid for that year. Boise State will probably not go to a BCS game this year and some mighty awful teams will. I hope the Orange bowl committee will be happy with a Big East vs ACC match up this year. Cincinnati vs BC sounds riveting.

This is what we will get:
Rose: Southern Cal vs Penn State
Sugar: Alabama vs Boise State
Orange: Boston College vs Cincinnati
Fiesta: Texas vs Utah
National Championship: Florida vs Oklahoma

The BCS Doomsday Scenario

So we have heard all of the terrible predictions of what would happen if no one was undefeated and last year we had a two loss team win the BCS championship. It was bound to happen and it's probably good for the sport. Today however, we talk about the ultimate in BCS black-eyes: Two teams from the same conference end up being ranked number one and two. This is a distinct possibility this year. Look at the top five:

1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma

If Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championship game and doesn't jump over Texas or if the Gators lose before the SEC championship and then beat 'Bama --we have two Big Twelve teams leading the BCS. To muddy this quagmire - what if the Sooners beat Tech in two weeks at Norman by less than a touchdown? Couple this with an Alabama loss in the SEC championship and you have five teams from two conferences with a legitimate claim to the BCS game.

We have all hoped and wished and prayed for some type of playoff and, whether you like him or not, with our incoming President pushing for a playoff, maybe we can get something done.

We can't do anything about this year however - so we sit, watch, and wait for the inevitable to happen... someone's gonna get screwed. My guess right now is Texas Tech. They lose to Oklahoma and they drop in the Big Twelve to the third spot - leaving them in the Cotton Bowl in , more than likely, freezing conditions against LSU or South Carolina. Not a great end to what could be a one-loss, magical season.

Maybe if he pushes hard enough - in 2013 we can award the Obama Trophy to the college football's first top division National Playoff Champion.

Back to the Grind...

So you leave for a year and half and LSU wins a national championship and Saban is knocking again.

We have a doozy of a post coming up tomorrow that may knock the BCS back into oblivion like it should be...

Just wait...

Florida president ready to push football playoff plan

Finally, a college football president will come to the table with a plan for a college football playoff.

There are things that Machen must remember as he puts his plan together:

1. You must include part of the current bowl system. Schools will not leave their financial partners out in the cold.

2. You must include all six of the BCS conference champions.

3. You must include an opportuniy for non-BCS conference teams to get in. I think it has to be a significant chance also, not a cursory move. It can't be anything like the fifth BCS game, which is there to get the smaller conferences out of the courtroom.

4. It can only go one more week into January.

Will all this in mind, I propose my latest playoff plan.


1. Conference champions from Big East, ACC, SEC, Big XII, Pac-10, and Big 10 get automatic bids.

2. Next four highest ranked teams get bids. Rankings methods are TBD, but I prefer an unbiased (if that is possible) committee. If that seems unattainable, how about one representative (not a coach) from each school in Division I?

3. Top six seeds get first round byes. During the week before Christmas, Seed #10 plays at seed #7 and Seed #9 plays at seed #8. Profit goes to conferences on a 60-40 split to home team conference.

4. Two plans here:

A. During traditional New Years day games, next round (four games) is played at traditional four major bowl sites with as much consideration given as possible to home team geography. Next three games are rotated with a location getting the national championship every four years. These games are played on consecutive weeks.

B. Add three more major bowl sites: The new Dallas Cowboys arena, either of the domed stadiums in Minneapolis or Indianapolis, and the football stadium in Charlotte, NC. Put these stadums in the rotation, consider home team geography for the quarterfinals (round of eight) and each stadium gets a national championship game every seven years. The games would also start during the traditional New Years games and be played on consecutive weeks.

The plan gets ten teams in with four at-large, which is plenty to consider non-BCS teams and get those other good teams that do not win their conference.

Bernie... are you listening?

2007 Season - The Calm Before the Storm

We are now three months from the first game. Three months from finding out if Tim Tebow is for real. Three months from finding out if USC can now step it up with John David Booty in his second year as a starter. Three months to find out if anyone can challenge Oklahoma and Texas in the Big XII. Three months to find out if West Virginia can ride two superstars to a national championship.

We start our work now as we analyze each conference between now and September. We then will combine them all together for an overall picture.

Check back every couple of weeks to see whats up...

The Real Top Sixteen: A Playoff Preview...

Now that the season is truly over, let's go back and look at who the best teams are. There are some close calls of course, but the truth has come out and think we have some clear cut winners.

What follows are the matchups for the iTwentyFive playoff. I wrote about this on
e-sports.com about six years ago. I think it would be an awesome system for a playoff.

The way it would work is that sixteen teams would be picked (method to be decided, for this year I used my top sixteen). The first round would be played at the home site of the top seeded teams. That would leave seven game sites remaining. Four would be the big four (Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange), and the other three would be some upper tier bowls (Gator, Cotton, Holiday, Peach, Capitol One, etc...) in a rotation. The big four would get the national semi-finals and the championship game. The site that had held the previous Championship game would be a quarter final site (That would be the Rose this year). The big four would rotate position from year to year.

The games would start after finals and take four weeks.

As to the other bowls - they could still play and be just as relevant as they are now (And I hope they aren't too delusional about how important they are now).

I will give results for these games over every weekend between now and the beginning of the year and we will see who our true national champion is...

The Games for Round One:

#16 Rutgers at #1 Ohio State - Can the Scarlet Knight defense slow down Troy Smith and Ted Ginn. Can Ray Rice run on the Buckeye defense. This is a matchup worthy of a playoff

#9 Arkansas at #8 Wisconsin - Has Wisconsin ever seen speed like this? Can the Razorbacks perform in possible freezing temperatures? Can Wisconsin move the ball on a very active Arkansas defense?

#12 Notre Dame at #5 Louisiana State - Notre Dame gets one more shot to prove itself against a top notch opponent after going 0-2 this year. LSU gets to play pitch and catch against a weak ND defense.

#13 Wake Forest at #4 Louisville - Can anyone play methodically and beat Louisville? Didn't rutgers do that? Can the Louisville defense keep Wake Forest from scoring? If they can stop them just a couple times, will that be enough for the Brian Brohm machine?

#15 Boise State at #2 Florida - Is there an offense that can score on the Florida defense? Can the Florida offense stop giving opponents free rides into games? Can Boise State continue its magical season ?

#10 Auburn at #7 Oklahoma - Alright Stoops you're in the playoff, now how do you stop Kenny Irons? Auburn, can you stop the newly healed Adrian Petersen, who now has a last game at home?

#14 Tennessee at #3 Michigan - The Volunteers go the Big House to see if the Wolverines are all that. Can Eric Ainge and his core of wide receivers carve up the Michigan secondary like Troy Smith did?How many yards will Mike Hart get on a suspect Tennessee rush defense?

#11 West Virginia at #6 Southern Cal - A chance to rebound after the loss at UCLA, but not a chance to rest. Can Steve Slayton slice his way through an adequate Trojan D? How many points will USC score on WVU? Anyone have an abacus?